Saturday, February 14, 2009

Dream League Prospects (40-59)

Hardball Dynasty's
Ken Winston

40. Ken Winston, 1B, San Francisco
Triple A, 25, R/R
So, how many prospect win the MVP award of Triple A and not even earn a sniff at the MLB level the next year? Winston did just that, and pouted with a sub-par season with a .301 average. Including in the antics were spray painting GM Xandor’s Escalade and urinating in Juan Moya’s locker. Can anyone say Jeff Kent-Barry Bonds?
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Cleanup hitter

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41. Clay Simms, P, Pit
Double A, 22, L/L
A crafty lefty, Simms opted to pursue baseball instead of follow brother Chris on the gridiron. Turns out Clay may have a longer career on the diamond. Three solid pitches, great command, good splits and likely going to hit his potential.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Closer

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42. Carlos Perez, UT, Tacoma
Triple A, 23, R/R
A leadoff hitter by initial viewing, Perez doubles as a human contortionist for Ringling Bros circus. Perez got stuck in the pretzel for three days two winters ago, but got untangled with a crowbar and KY. The flexibility allows Perez to play all but catcher and pitcher for the T-Birds.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Tony Phillips with speed

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43. Tomas James, P, Durham

Triple A, 22, L/L
James is a gamer. Whether in the back end of the rotation or the long man, “The Georgia Beach” gets it done. His listed weight of 228 falls 20 pounds shy of his actual scale-tipping figures. Some say he looks like another Javy Vazquez. Others say he looks like the alien farmer bad guy in "Men in Black".
ETA: Season 5
Projection: #5 starter or long man

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44. Wendell Phelps, RP, Philadelphia
Triple A, 23, L/L
Many touted Phelps to be the next Bob Gibson – until he lost his right arm in a combine accident his junior year in high school. What was a brotha’ doing on a farm anyway? No one knows. But Phelps persisted and has emerged as a durable short man, possibly even closer material. Just bench him in the Colorado clashes with those fly balls.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Set up man or closer

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45. Chad Johnstone, P, San Francisco
Triple A, 22, S/L
Johnstone doubled as a chef until Gordon Ramsey recently lashed out so much on “Hell’s Kitchen” that Johnstone hung up the apron for good. Front office personnel remain optimistic he wasn’t so belittled that he hangs up the glove too.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Set up / Closer

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46. Cliff Schalk, P, New Orleans
Double A, 22, L/L
Many liken Schalk to Dontrelle Willis with his frame and quirky delivery. Others say it’s the bad teeth. Either way, Schalk will be drawing a big league check soon. Likely two years to let his command progress.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: #5 starter

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47. Bey Kelly, C, Philadelphia
Triple A, 23, L/R
Man, can this guy call a game. Legend has it, in high school, Kelly called three no-hitters in a 5-game series. The final one was a lottery for a student at a pep rally, turning out to be the principal’s daughter taking the hill. Yes, he’s that much of a mastermind behind the plate. At the plate, well, he could take a few batting lessons from the daughter.
ETA: Season 7
Projection: Starting C or defensive replacement

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48. Raymond Sheffield, Kansas City
Triple A, 21, S/R
Originally one of the "Four Horsemen" San Francisco projected in Season 7, the Stampede sent Sheffield packing last season. He almost got injured getting his boarding pass at the airport. With an uncanny ability to get injured at any fast food restaurant or gas station, Sheffield may never see the mound more than 10 starts per year. If he sees 30, he may be a Cy Young winner.
ETA: Season 8
Projection: #3 starter

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49. Irv Mattes, 2B, Cheyenne
High A, 21, R/R
Mattes, the younger brother of Kansas City pitcher Gil Mattes, can hit like the rest of the Outlaws. A little old for the High A ranks, Mattes appears road blocked at 2B unless he or Delino Martin shifts positions. That, and Mattes has to recover from a broken wrist after Gil pulled Irv off 16-year-old cousin Betty Lou at the Arkansas family’s Christmas gathering.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Starting 2B or CF

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50. Don Hogan, OF, New Orleans
Double A, 24, R/R
A five-tool player, Hogan has the upside of Carlos Beltran. Others say Mark Kotsay. We say somewhere in between. Hogan projects to be a nice 20/20 player while patrolling the OF in any spot. Unless Hogan discovers too many good times on Bourbon Street. Then can you say Chuck Carr?
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Starting OF in the #3 or #6 slot

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51. Pedro Molina, OF, Salt Lake
High A, 19, R/R
Finally! A Molina who isn’t a catcher. About like a Grammatica playing WR. Actually, the family had just one catcher’s mitt it shared and when it was stolen after Pedro turned 12, he had to grab a cardboard box and convert it to a glove. When catching fastballs being too much, Molina wandered into the outfield where he stayed since.
ETA: Late season 5
Projection: #2 or #7 hitter, Rod Carew without speed

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52. Ugueth Veras, P, Atlanta
Triple A, 23, R/R
Veras appears ready for the big show with solid command, respectable splits and good 1 and 2 pitches. But being bumped down the rankings due to an appeal from owner zedonk for Armando Garces spot on the list has caused serious riffs going into Season 5 spring training. Veras allegedgly has contacted the U.S. Immigration department about Garces citizenship. More details to follow.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: #4 Starter

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53. Peter Beck, P, Durham
Double A, 19, R/R
Beck was taken by Bulls GM njohnson78 at #11 overall in the Season 3 draft. A late bloomer every season, Beck improves after the break and midseason promotions. Close sources say it’s around midseason when Beck’s HGH hookups take effect.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Long reliever/emergency starter

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54. Alving Tavarez, P, St Louis
Double A, 19, R/R
Tavarez slipped by the Border Patrol and was slipped some fake papers by an Archie intern to get his green card. Since then, the Mexican native has been pushed through the system, perhaps too fast evidenced by his 1.52 WHIP at two levels in Season 4. Tavarez is still trying to comprehend English the best he can, leaving him avoiding Applebee’s and Outback and sticking solely with On the Border and hole-in-the-wall Mexican restaurants for postgame meals.
ETA: Season 7
Projection: Deported

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55. Esteban Guerrero, OF, Chicago
Triple A, 21, R/R
The final sibling in the Vladimir-Wilton notable lineage, Esteban is just an all-around player. Solid bat, good outfield arm, Guerrero fits the mold of the older boys, aside from the fact he was adopted. His bat is big-league ready. His intangibles will arrive in the next 4-5 years under on-the-job training.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Corner OF, #6 hitter

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56. Clay Neugebauer, SS, Kansas City
Double A, 23, S/R
Talk about an arm! When Clay was in high school, urban legend holds that he'd could stick a tin can from 150 feet. No, not hit it. Throw the ball INTO the can. Yes, that much power, that much precision. Too bad he stick a beach ball if it came across the plate.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: #8 hitter, Gold Glove SS

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57. Ozzie Metcalfe, 1B, Huntington
Triple A, 25, S/R
So he’s slower than Kevin James in a potato bag race. Does it matter when nearly 25% of your hits are homers? Metcalfe has launched no fewer than 36 bombs in his four minor league seasons. It’s a matter of time before Huntington - or another team – finds room for his big bat.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: #5 hitter

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58. Hunter Gibbs, P, Tacoma
Double A, 20, R/R
Big Hunter also works as Stu Dolan’s bodyguard and doesn’t let anyone near the prima donna prospect. Gibbs also has been suspended three times for beaning batters, once with the batter in the on-deck circle. But Gibbs looks to be closer material for the loaded Thunderbirds.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Closer or set up

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59. Scott Hicks, P, Tampa Bay
Double A, 20, L/L
Hicks rates as Tampa’s top arm in the minors, though getting batters out from the right side of the plate has been a challenge. Hicks has been to camps and seminars, trying to “visualize” and overcoming his fear of right-handed batters. Hicks appeared to make progress until he broke the clubhouse plasma TV after throwing his Wii controller while pitching to Jason Bay.
ETA: Season 5

Projection: #5 starter
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Dream League Prospects (60-75)

While most of us watch idly as St. Louis and Vancouver lock horns in the World Series, I figured we'd take a look ahead at the top 75 prospects in Dream League. Projections, ETA to the majors and a quick capsule along with the players links are included. Who needs Baseball America?

Note: The prospects list does not include players selected in the Season 4 Amateur Draft.

Apologies if you believe there's a player off the list. If you have a question why he (or she) has been omitted, trade chat me and we'll have a professional scout return your message shortly.

Player profies #40-59 are to be posted Saturday afternoon.

Enjoy!

Hardball Dynasty's
Kevin Crosby

60. Kevin Crosby, P, Philadelphia
Triple A, 22, S/R
Relying on control and ground balls, Crosby is a serviceable pitcher for Philly’s ballpark. He won’t dominate a game, but looks to be an innings eater. And also a world class hot dog eater, finishing third at the Nathan’s world contest to Tsunami Kobayashi and Joey Chestnut.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Back of rotation starter


61. Freddy Mori, P, Philadelphia
Triple A, 24, R/R
The Korean native has been tossed around the league like a cheap Korean whore at the Mama-San house after the Army privates just got their first paycheck. Yet, Mori can pitch despite being with 5 organizations in 4 years. Whether a spot start, long relief or a closer, Mori looks to be the Korean version of Julian Tavarez. Minus the ugly face.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Every role on the staff


62. Henry Torres, P, Rochester
Low A, 19, R/R
A submariner like Dan Quisenberry and Kent Tekulve, Torres can pitch every day – and not break a pane of glass. The durable righty even caddied for Tekulve at a celebrity golf tournament before he was fired on Hole #8 after accidentally pulling out a 5-iron instead of a wedge, resulting in Tekulve overshooting the green and smashing a window of a Mercedes cruising alongside the Monongahela River.
ETA: Season 8
Projection: Every day 7th and 8th inning man


63. Marc Stein, OF, San Diego
Double A, 19, L/L
Big sticks seem to be a dime a dozen – unless you need one. The Friars drafted a good one in Stein with the #7 overall pick in Season 3. Stein has moved rapidly, lighting up AA with 27 HRs and 113 RBI. Side note: Stein has been labeled a “cheap bastard” by teammates and stashes away his meal money as his 6-5, 188-pound frame shows. Just be sure to know where you’re wallet is at at all times.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Cleanup hitter





64. Alex Candelaria, RP, Cincinnati
High A, 21, L/L
The youngest of the two illegitimate sons (Vladimir of Vancouver) of former MLB’er John Candelaria, The southpaw suffered an injury to set back his progress, but with an offseason to heal, Candyman aims to be either a setup man or a closer, depending on the caliber of team he’s on.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: Set up man or junk closer


65. Travis Kelly, C, New York
Triple A, 23, S/R
Kelly stands as one of the best-hitting catchers in the minors. But that doesn’t make him one of the best-catching hitters in the minors, explaining why he’s squatted in AAA for three seasons. While having a Howitzer behind the plate, Kelly calls an average game at best. A move to 1B or a trade to the AL is likely, where the restaurants were voted better in Season 4 to help put muscle onto his 6-3, 196 lanky frame.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: DH or backup C


66. Banana Kielty, RP, Tacoma
High A, 20, L/L
Just the name alone should be on the list.
ETA: Season 7
Projection: Set up or closer on small market team


67. Yuniesky Hernandez, P, Colorado
High A, 20, L/L
It’s a one-trick act, but the one pitch is top of the line. Titled “the Dominican slurve”, Hernandez buckles knees of batters - and umpires too. With wire-thin patience and hothead, Hernandez sat out half his rookie year on suspension after his catcher called a “pitchout” while Hernandez fired a heater at the umpire’s kneecap. Scouts have raved about his control ever since.
ETA: Late Season 5
Projection: Cell block 6


68. Glenn Raymond, 1B, San Diego
Triple A, 21, L/L
Everyone loves Raymond, but really, why? A marginal fielder. Slower than a Giambi brother. No power. But he can hit to all fields and is a clubhouse leader. His pregame lockerroom speeches have been posted on YouTube and Raymond is slated to be the opening act for Tony Robbins on the blabbermouth’s upcoming tour.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: #6 hitter


69. Dude Little, 1B, San Francisco
Low A, 19, R/R
Dude! Where's my glove! A stocky 5-9, 200-pound first baseman, Little reminds some of Matt Stairs, others of Steve Garvey with his propensity to get on the field, regardless if injured. One time, Little played with a pen lodged in his eye and still collected two hits.
ETA: Season 8
Projection: #6 hitter


70. Tomas Martin, C, San Francisco
Triple A, 24, R/R
Well, he can’t hit righties. And he is likely a backup catcher on a good team with his pitch calling. But Eddie Taubensee had a career too – besides his current gig selling insurance.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: Starting C or platoon DH


71. Andy Ferguson, P, Texas
Triple A, 23, R/R
Think of a shorter Rick Reuschel. A pure innings gobbler. And an all-you-can-eat buffet gobbler too. Ferguson took down a Ruby Tuesday’s salad bar in under 90 minutes and tallied a nearly three pizza’s worth of slices at a Pizza Hut recently.
ETA: Season 5
Projection: #5 starter


72. Herb Rando, RP, New Orleans
High A, 21, R/R
Rando projects to be a solid reliever, but needs to advance past Class A ball after two seasons at the level. He’s popular with the younger players after the game en route to parties via the liquor store. Though Rando suffered minor scrapes when fellow pitcher Raul Lopez kicked him out of a moving vehicle after Rando purchased a case of Bud Light and a bottle of Cuervo for Lopez.
ETA: Season 6
Projections: Right-handed specialist / Set up


73. Gary Simms, RP, Baltimore
Lee Smith. Tom Henke. Billy Wagner.
Gary Simms was destined to be the next great power closer. Near perfect control. Impeccable splits. No one had a better #1 and #2 pitch combo than Simms.
So what went wrong? Scouts say there’s no way he’ll reach his potential now. Perhaps sitting in Triple-A four seasons went to his head. Perhaps it was Candy at Bazooka’s who got in his pants, and in his head. A shame.
ETA: Season 7
Projection: Setup


74. Tripp Gordon, RP, Pawtucket
Double A, 24, R/R
Pawtucket fans continue to ask “what if”. Gordon entered professional baseball armed with three quality big league pitches, but the minor league coaching staff continues to teach the spitter and the Eephus. Perhaps it’s time to let Whitey Ford go as the roving pitching coach, Pawtucket.
ETA: Season 6
Projection: RH specialist


75. Andruw Lowe, RP, New York
High A, 22, R/R
The nephew of Derek Lowe, Andruw also hoped to break the majors as a reliever in short order. But after a spring training invite in Season Two, Lowe and GM lefty32’s drunken wife were caught in the back bathroom together with Lowe’s pants at his ankles. They claimed “nothing happenend”, but Lowe has been banished to High A Siberia forever.
ETA: Never
Projection: Setup or turd closer

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Thursday, February 12, 2009

World Series Preview

St. Louis Archies (1) vs. Vancouver Mountain Lions (1)

Number one in the AL versus number one in NL. 216 combined wins. Two likely MVP winners. Two strong Cy Young candidates. Really, who can be surprised at the World Series matchup we have on our hands? To say it was an easy road for either number one seed would be selling the prospective AL and NL squads short however. Both teams had to struggle to get to the World Series. Both squads earned their stripes, St. Louis by getting through a seven game series with Durham, and Vancouver by beating a game Fargo squad, and last year's champs (Kansas City).

St. Louis won in the AL due to some strong top of the order pitching, a solid defense, and former AL MVP Darwin Floyd, who is a frontrunner to add a second MVP trophy on his mantle. This combination led to 100 wins and an AL North title. St. Louis' struggles, which became apparent in their series with Durham, are at the back of the starting staff and their limited power from the top to the bottom of the lineup.

When the Archies elected to start Branch Flores over Jacob Wilkerson in Game 2, (thus giving him the game ball in Game 6 instead of Wilkerson). Many writers, including yours truly, felt that this would actually be enough to swing the series in Durham's favor. As predicted Flores got lit up to the tune of six runs in 4 2/3rds innings in Game 2 as Durham teed off. Naysayers were further bolstered when Wilkerson won Game 3 allowing only one run in eight innings. Later in the series Flores came apart in Game 6 allowing four runs in 5 2/3rds innings. This implosion enraged St. Louis fans sending them to the talk radio switchboards in droves. Then, just as villagers began marching on Busch Stadium II with pitchforks and torches, Wilkerson came through in Game 7 pitching six shutout innings, and all was forgiven.

Privately some still fault General Manager shiish for letting the series get that close. The majority, and more vocal group of St. Louis supporters, say it doesn't matter how many games you go, what matters is getting the win. Perhaps it was of a stroke of genius setting Wilkerson up for the decisive Game 7 at home with a wild home crowd to cheer him on. In either case, expect Wilkerson to play another key roll in this series. He will need to pitch well, because the other "ace" of the staff, Javier Benitez, was horrifying against the Bulls, allowing 15 runs in 15 1/3rd innings. Benitez has been known in baseball circles for having the proverbial "million dollar arm, ten cent head". If Benitez's pitches like that in this series, you can put Vancouver down as winners of a five game series.

Vancouver roared through the regular season posting a Dream League record 116 wins. They did it against tough divisional competition including the Salem Slugs and improved San Diego Friars. Sporting the second best offense in the NL (in terms of runs), and the best pitching staff (in terms of runs), Vancouver was the regular season favorite to win the World Series. Then fate came calling, knocking all-world pitcher Josh Clancy out for the rest of the season with bone chips in his throwing elbow. Sticky Sadler, another veteran pitcher had already been lost earlier due to the exact same ailment.

With the pitching staff battered, Las Vegas bookmakers actually had Kansas City (109 wins) as the favorite in the NLCS matchup. Enter newly minted Vancouver legend Adam Jorgensen. The big righthander from California pitched his way into Lion lore by going 2-0 in the postseason with a 2.41 ERA. Add to Jorgensen to hard luck Einar Valentin, who allowed only one run in 19 innings this postseason (19 strikeouts) and has somehow still has not registered a win, and you've got a staff that's pulled together.

The offense in Vancouver is plenty tough. NL MVP candidate (just give the man the trophy already!) Fernando Rodriguez is menancing as any hitter in the league, and he is protected by a deep lineup that features the best all around offensive weapon in the game who's not named Harold Kinney or Grant Sparks, in Gene Gaetti and power hitter Rey James.

I don't expect this series to be as close as it may appear on paper. I see Vancouver's pitching staff being the equal of St. Louis' even with their injuries, with the exception of Wilkerson. St. Louis will need to win at least two games in Wilkerson's starts in order to take the series--if he does, and St. Louis wins, you're looking at the WS MVP. Benitez will need to win at least one game. More then likely they get two games out of those two, and if they're lucky they pick up a third game from someone else. Given the fact Vancouver will likely score at least five runs against all starters not named Wilkerson or Benitez, I'm not sure where the other win comes from. Jorgensen, Valentine, and Adrian Hewson are all very capable of winning games (though Hewson has struggled in the postseason) against top flight pitching. If the games go to the bullpen Vancouver still has the edge with their veteran staff that appears to have recovered from Season 3's epic NLCS disaster. This is due in large part to the "18 million dollar man" Wolf Young, who has made Kansas City General Manager chadrader, and others, look foolish for mocking the Vancouver offseason acquisition(0.87 WHIP and 2.08 ERA in 17+ innings of relief during the postseason).

AC Prediction: Vancouver in 6
MVP: Gene Gaetti
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Season 4 World Series Preview

So we know the two teams.  We know the star players.  We know about the stats and how each team did this season.  They're good, we get it.  So let's look a little deeper, and find some of the smaller details that might otherwise get overlooked.  

Vancouver has been running a three-man rotation, with two of those being righties, and one being a left-hander.  The bullpen has three right-handers, and two lefties.  Among the starters, the two right-handers actually do very well against lefties, and are exceptional against righties.  The lone left-hander in the starting rotation is a stud against lefties at the plate, but only average against righties.  The bullpen is very impressive against right-handers, with only one weak link.  

The St Louis starting lineup sports six righties and three lefties at the plate.  None of them hit right-handed pitching especially well, not even the left-handed batters.  But a number of their hitters can kill left-handed pitchers, which could pose a problem for Vancouver in a couple of the games.  But on the surface, Vancouver wins this particular match-up, as they dominate right-handed hitting, and the St Louis lineup is full of righties.  

When St Louis is in the field, they will most likely trot out a three-man rotation, much like that of Vancouver.  Although their roster would tell you otherwise.  The league is looking into the possibility of fining the team for giving false information to the press, when St Louis listed a pitcher as their Game 1 starter, despite that pitcher having thrown zero innings in the post-season so far.  But we digress.  Most likely, St Louis will have two righties and one lefty in their rotation.  The right-handers can hold their own against both lefties and righties at the plate, but like the Vancouver situation, the left-handed pitcher is weak against players on both sides of the plate.  There is a right-hander in the bullpen who might be brought out as the third starter, but that is still a mystery.  As a whole, the pitching staff does not dominate lefties or righties, but there are two or three guys who are somewhere between above-average, and really really good.

At the plate, Vancouver does exceptionally well against right-handed pitching.  Uh-oh.  Five right-handed batters and three lefties among their regular starters, the vast majority are above-average to great when it comes to hitting righties, with just one or two who could be deemed "below-average" when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching.  This does not bode well for St Louis, who will rely heavily on their righties.  Even when it comes to left-handed pitching, Vancouver still hits the ball really well.  

Defensively, Vancouver has a little bit of an issue in their infield, while St Louis is solid all the way around.  The St Louis infielders are near the top of the ML at nearly every position when it comes to fielding percentage.  Vancouver is not exactly bad when it comes to their defense, as they are one of the best overall with their fielding percentage.  This might be an issue during the WS.  Or maybe it won't.

Based on this info, past performance, and all of the other information that we have, it's tough to not pick Vancouver.  

NJ's Prediction: Vancouver in 6.
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Season 4 IFA Market

With the league championships finishing up, and the world series right around the corner, it's safe to assume that there won't be any more big international signings this season.  So now we can look at the biggest signings, and how they might pan out in the ML someday.

The most expensive guy this season was Tony Ramirez, who was signed a minor league deal with a $16.5M bonus.  Listed as a catcher on the Scranton roster, Ramirez has the potential to be a fantastic player for years to come.  Offensively, he does not possess a ton of power, but his eye at the plate, and his knack for making contact with the ball, should help him be a lifetime .300+ hitter at the ML level.  In rookie ball this season, he was two points shy of hitting .400, while having more walks than strikeouts.  Behind the plate, the 18-year-old has the potential to be one of the best pitch-callers in the history of the Dream League.  He helped his pitchers keep an ERA of 3.78, while he caught more than one-third of the attempted base stealers.  He doesn't have the strongest or most accurate arm, and he will never play a full 162 game season, but his pros certainly out-weight his cons.

Julio Manzanilla was the second most expensive IFA this season, going to Chicago for a $16.2M bonus.  Slightly overrated, Manzanilla was signed early in the season, when many teams had a large sum of money in their prospect pools.  Did Chicago get into a bidding war for a player who could have been had for less money later in the season?  Maybe.  He threw in 19 games this season, compiling a 7-5 record with a 4.07 ERA at the AA level.  He pitches well against lefties and righties alike, and has three above average pitches, but his lack of control and his tendency to give up the long-ball are troublesome.  He will be a starter in the ML, maybe even a SP1 or SP2, but he will always have those problems following him.

The Red Wings of Rochester signed Jolbert Morales late in the season for $15.1M, before he was assigned to the rookie squad.  A 2.74 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 23 innings of work, Morales only managed a 1-2 record in four starts.  Great stamina and control, with an outstanding first pitch, Morales could be a solid starter in the ML someday.  His splits against righties and lefties are remarkably similar, despite being a right-handed thrower.  His groundball/flyball rating is not great, and his lack of velocity might catch up with him at the higher levels, but he should still be a top starter for the Rochester franchise in a few years.

Listed as a catcher, and immediately signed to the ML roster after being given a big league deal with a $15M bonus, Francisco Ortiz is a weird kid.  I don't know who the New Orleans brass think they're fooling, but this guy is not a catcher.  Maybe a 1B.  Maybe a DH.  But not a catcher.  His pitch calling rating is on par with most LF's, and that's not saying much.  In 143 games this season, his pitchers managed a 6.00 ERA, well above the league average.  The team did not do well as a whole, but there are some good pitchers on that team, so some of the blame for the high ERA has to lie with the catcher.  But.....he can hit the crap out of the ball, and maybe NO is willing to overlook his lack of skill behind the plate, because of his ability AT the plate.  He's only 21-years-old, so he still has room to grow, and should be a dominant hitter for NO for many years.

Always looking for offense, Colorado signed a power-hitting 2B in Carlos Mangual.  A three-year ML deal with a $12.6M bonus, Mangual hits for power and average, and attacks lefties and righties alike.  He lit up the LoA and HiA this season, and should start season 5 at the HiA level.  So what are we worried about?  His health, for sure.  It's just a matter of time before he makes a trip to the DL for an extended period.  But IF he can somehow stay healthy, he'll be a very solid player at the ML level someday, especially if he remains in Colorado, which makes average hitters look good, and good hitters look great.

The most interesting signing this season: Javier DeJesus.  Scranton signed him with a $0 signing bonus.  That's not a typo.  $0.  Zero dollars.  Cero pesos.  All DeJesus wanted was a couple million for a bonus.  So what did Scranton's management do?  They gave him a long-term big league deal, worth $5M per year for five years.  He's only 18-years-old, but he already has the skill-set to play at the HiA or AA level, so he should have no problem joining the ML squad by the time he is 21 or 22.  If they can extend his contract before he becomes a free agent, they could lock him up all the way through his prime years.  And those will be some prime years.  Great stamina and control, he is great against righties and above average when it comes to lefties at the plate.  His lack of velocity and his tendency to allow batters to put the ball in the air might come back to haunt him, but his pros strongly out weigh his cons.  This guy will be a force for years to come, and he will have staying power.  If management takes care of him, he'll be an ace well into his 30's.
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Monday, February 9, 2009

ALCS

St. Louis Archies (1) vs. Durham Bulls (2)

At the end of the day we got exactly the ALCS we expected--St. Louis vs Durham. Both teams have been built by top shelf General Managers, and both teams have excellent coaching staffs. Regardless of the outcome, both teams expect to be challenging for the title of AL Champion for some time to come. Nonetheless with both team's rosters in their prime, this series marks a big opportunity missed for whatever club fails to capitalize.

St. Louis boasts two high end starters in Javier Benitez and Jacob Wilkerson. Curiously there are some rumors that Wilkerson will drop to third in the rotation behind Benitez and Branch Flores. Not pitching veteran Wilkerson early off in the series could prove to be costly.

On the offensive side of the diamond, the Archies are led by AL MVP frontrunner Darwin Floyd. Floyd has done everything this year but has also gotten help from a strong supporting cast, including Ismael Fernandez who drove in five runs versus the Mud Duckies in their previous playoff series. The question of the series seems to be David Acosta. Acosta has been rushed to the ML level, but produced during the regular season. The bright lights of the playoffs seemed to intimidate him however, and he looked horrid against the Mud Duckies, batting 2-12. Acosta needs to protect Floyd in the lineup in order for the Archies to score runs.

Durham is feast or famine--the hitting is the feast, and the pitching is famine. Sporting no starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, or a pitcher who tossed 200 innings, Durham is trying to reverse the old playoff wisdom that you "win with pitching and defense". The relief core was arguably worse, with closer Mendy Duncan posting a whopping 5.66 ERA, and nine blown saves. Somehow this patched together staff managed to stifle an impressive Colorado lineup, limiting them to seven runs in three games. Our view: Largely smoke and mirrors.

Can the fearsome Bull lineup makeup for the poor pitching? Zip Cook, Luis Villano, Will Nixon, Grant Sparks, and Frank Martin all slugged over 35 home runs and drove in 120+ during the regular season. All are in the prime of their career and show no signs of wear and tear after 165 games.

Clearly both teams have a shot, so let's look at the season series for answers, right? Wrong. Unfortunately this sheds no light on the situation--St. Louis and Durham split the season series 5-5. We see Durham's ability to manufacture runs on the basepaths and through bombs enough to offset St. Louis' pitching advantage. The surprise of the series: Rob Fitzgerald produces, creating a Durham postseason legend.


AC Prediction: Durham in 7
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Sunday, February 8, 2009

NLCS

#1 Vancouver Mountain Lions vs #2 Kansas City Bush Leaguers

Nobody will say it out loud, but there are certainly some owners in the league who think this series will be better, and will count for more, than the World Series itself.  Vancouver set a new league record with 116 wins this season, while KC was not far behind, with 109 wins.  Both teams are an equal mix of youth and experience, both score runs in bunches, and both are head and shoulders above the rest of the NL when it comes to pitching.

Vancouver has suffered through injuries, yet is still in a commanding position, and poised to take the next step and play in the WS.  Posting a minute 3.68 ERA in the playoffs so far, their starters have given up only 6 runs in 5 games.  It's their bullpen that has been somewhat suspect, giving up the other 12 runs in those 5 games.  At the plate, their hitters were less than stellar in the divisional series, batting .250 with just 6 HR's and 9 walks, giving them an OBP of .287 and OPS of .677, all of which is near the bottom of the NL in the playoffs so far.  Obviously they're scoring enough runs to win games, but all of those stats need to improve if they want to get by KC.  Or do they?

In four games, the Bush Leaguers pitching staff is sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, despite only giving up 3 HR's.  What's the opposite of the "immovable object versus an unstoppable force?"  Because that's what we might be getting with KC's pitching against Vancouver's hitting.  Fortunately for KC, the batters are hitting the cover off the ball.  Batting .333 with an OPS of .885 through four games, they're averaging 7.5 runs per game, which is well above the average for the rest of the NL playoff teams.  

This series is so tough to call.  On the one hand, you have the defending champs.  On the other, you have a team that absolutely tore through the regular season, despite injuries.  Despite their struggles during the playoffs so far, KC's pitching staff is superior to that of Vancouver, especially without Clancy and Sadler playing for the Mountain Lions.  The Bush Leaguers will lead off with Benito Beltran, followed by Mac Perry and Gil Mattes, with Jon Everett penciled in as the 4th starter.  But don't be surprised if KC tries to get Beltran into the fourth game, and run with just a three-man rotation.  Everett posted a 16-8 record during the regular season, but if Beltran is at 100% for game 4, you can bet KC will throw him out there.  

Vancouver is countering in game 1 with Adam Jorgensen, who went 12-4 with a 3.07 ERA during the regular season.  Game 2 will feature Einar Valentin, who went 14-3 with a sparkling 2.21 ERA.  Adrian Hewson will get the nod in game 3.  As we've already established, the Vancouver starters are more than solid, but the bullpen is what gets the team in trouble.  Hewson has the best stamina of the three, and he rarely goes more than 5 or 6 innings.  Jorgensen and Valentin will both survive to the 4th or 5th innings, before they need to come out of the game.  They will all throw spectacular games before they get yanked, but the question is what will happen once they come out.  If Wolf Young, Dean Robinson, and Mark Vaughn can eat up the two or three innings before Billy Rose gets into the game, then Vancouver will be in good shape.  But with the way KC is hitting the ball, that is not a given.

NJ Prediction: Kansas City's pitchers realize their potential, and the offense continues on its torrid streak.  KC wins in 6.
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