Sunday, February 8, 2009

NLCS

#1 Vancouver Mountain Lions vs #2 Kansas City Bush Leaguers

Nobody will say it out loud, but there are certainly some owners in the league who think this series will be better, and will count for more, than the World Series itself.  Vancouver set a new league record with 116 wins this season, while KC was not far behind, with 109 wins.  Both teams are an equal mix of youth and experience, both score runs in bunches, and both are head and shoulders above the rest of the NL when it comes to pitching.

Vancouver has suffered through injuries, yet is still in a commanding position, and poised to take the next step and play in the WS.  Posting a minute 3.68 ERA in the playoffs so far, their starters have given up only 6 runs in 5 games.  It's their bullpen that has been somewhat suspect, giving up the other 12 runs in those 5 games.  At the plate, their hitters were less than stellar in the divisional series, batting .250 with just 6 HR's and 9 walks, giving them an OBP of .287 and OPS of .677, all of which is near the bottom of the NL in the playoffs so far.  Obviously they're scoring enough runs to win games, but all of those stats need to improve if they want to get by KC.  Or do they?

In four games, the Bush Leaguers pitching staff is sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, despite only giving up 3 HR's.  What's the opposite of the "immovable object versus an unstoppable force?"  Because that's what we might be getting with KC's pitching against Vancouver's hitting.  Fortunately for KC, the batters are hitting the cover off the ball.  Batting .333 with an OPS of .885 through four games, they're averaging 7.5 runs per game, which is well above the average for the rest of the NL playoff teams.  

This series is so tough to call.  On the one hand, you have the defending champs.  On the other, you have a team that absolutely tore through the regular season, despite injuries.  Despite their struggles during the playoffs so far, KC's pitching staff is superior to that of Vancouver, especially without Clancy and Sadler playing for the Mountain Lions.  The Bush Leaguers will lead off with Benito Beltran, followed by Mac Perry and Gil Mattes, with Jon Everett penciled in as the 4th starter.  But don't be surprised if KC tries to get Beltran into the fourth game, and run with just a three-man rotation.  Everett posted a 16-8 record during the regular season, but if Beltran is at 100% for game 4, you can bet KC will throw him out there.  

Vancouver is countering in game 1 with Adam Jorgensen, who went 12-4 with a 3.07 ERA during the regular season.  Game 2 will feature Einar Valentin, who went 14-3 with a sparkling 2.21 ERA.  Adrian Hewson will get the nod in game 3.  As we've already established, the Vancouver starters are more than solid, but the bullpen is what gets the team in trouble.  Hewson has the best stamina of the three, and he rarely goes more than 5 or 6 innings.  Jorgensen and Valentin will both survive to the 4th or 5th innings, before they need to come out of the game.  They will all throw spectacular games before they get yanked, but the question is what will happen once they come out.  If Wolf Young, Dean Robinson, and Mark Vaughn can eat up the two or three innings before Billy Rose gets into the game, then Vancouver will be in good shape.  But with the way KC is hitting the ball, that is not a given.

NJ Prediction: Kansas City's pitchers realize their potential, and the offense continues on its torrid streak.  KC wins in 6.

No comments: