Saturday, January 31, 2009

The Playoff Push

Let's start with the simple stuff: The National League.  Vancouver is going to be the top seed and will get a bye to start the playoffs.  Not too far behind them is Kansas City, who will also start the playoffs with a few days off to rest the starters.  But after them.......

The next best record in the league is Fargo, who happens to be in the same division as KC.  Right now, they are sitting comfortably in the first wild card spot.  Four games ahead of Salt Lake, with just seven games remaining, Fargo seems a lock for the playoffs.  Meanwhile, SLC is fighting with Salem for that second WC spot.  Both are four games behind Fargo, and four games ahead of San Diego.  The Mad Friars are a long-shot, but they are hot lately, and could make a push for that final WC spot.  They need to keep winning, and hope SLC and Salem lose more than a few.  Not likely, but not impossible.  

SLC is in the middle of a series with Vancouver, and they have been holding their own so far.  Then they get a three game series against the lowly Buffalo team, and finish with three games against KC, who will be presumably resting some starters.  Salem has a series coming up against Tacoma, and then finish against SD.  The Mad Friars have that closing series against Salem, and it's preceeded by a series against Vancouver.  At the top of the WC, Fargo finishes up with KC and Buffalo.  I think Fargo will get that first WC spot, with Salt Lake City snagging the second spot.  They will play New York and Montgomery, who are currently separated by just two games for the #3 seed.  Purely speculation, but I think Montgomery will get SLC, while NY and Fargo duke it out in the other half of the bracket.

Over in the AL, oh my goodness.  The only team that has wrapped up a playoff spot is Atlanta, who is leading their division by 12 games.  But they are playing .500 ball, and will go into the playoffs with the worst record among playoff teams.  

In the AL North, St Louis leads Philly by two games, and Scranton by five, but they have only gone 3-7 in their last 10.  Scranton is a bit of a long-shot for the division title, but Philly has a real chance at winning the division, and possibly getting a bye.  

The AL East is just as close.  Durham is currently holding the top spot, but only two games ahead of Pittsburgh and Pawtucket.  With quite a few divisional games still remaining, this division could go any direction.  Pittsburgh?  Pawtucket?  Durham?  Flip a coin.  Then flip it again.  OK, one more time.

Just when you thought Colorado had the AL West wrapped up, Tucson has snuck back into the race, and is only two games back of the division lead.  But being 8 games out of the wild card spot, the only way they'll get into the playoffs is if they can pass Colorado in these last few games of the season.  Colorado has a series coming up against San Francisco, while Tucson will be playing Cheyenne, and then the two will play each other in a 3-game series to finish the season.  THAT will decide the AL West.

With the six teams in the North and East who are trying to get into the playoffs, two of them are going to be really unhappy when they miss the wild card by a game or two.  St Louis and Philly both get to play the lowly Cincinnati RedLegs, so they have arguably the easiest schedules to finish the season.  So one of them should win the division, and the other will get a WC spot.  Scranton has the toughest road from that division, and might be the odd-man-out.  In the East, Pawtucket has the toughest remaining schedule, as they play both Durham and Pittsburgh.  

The whole playoff picture might not be clear until after the final regular season game is played.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Current "list" for Season 5

I'm making a few assumptions here, since I haven't heard back from everyone, but here is more or less where we currently stand for owners next season:

American League
Definitely coming back, already *'d up:
shiish
repsher
mowbs69
lsansoucy
njohnson78
pizza_steve
amerith
zedonk

Coming back, but no * yet:
bcalarco12
antsampson
mjdato

Maybe coming back?
bball10
neilheyman
little tommy highway
xandor2

No:
sidekicker

From the National League:
Definitely coming back, already *'d up:
stiller609
ajf00529
2_black_dogs
chadrader
aaron_clarke

Yes, but no * yet (and here is where I'm making a bunch of assumptions):
lefty32
fighters
metserock44
rootgargle
jamesny27
dspahlinger
sergei1991
dhomard

Maybe?
norsk44
jmil397

No:
Primetime17

I'll try to update this as more information is made available, but I make no promises.