NL East Preview (Season 4)

NL East Preview

By ESPN Correspondent John Kruk

Florida Hurricanes
General Manager: ajf00529
Season 3 Record: 82 Wins – 80 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: Second

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: 82 Wins - 80 Losses (First)
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Nick Black (Third Baseman)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Winston Taft (Starting Pitcher)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Steve Falk (AA Starting Pitcher)

With last season’s regular season collapse General Manager ajf00529 was under some intense pressure within the organization and the fan base. There was rampant speculation that he might walk away or be forced out. Despite the media circus surrounding him, he was brought back for Season 4. Once his position was solidified a flurry of moves took place.

Gone is veteran Center Fielder Junior Grimes, Right Fielder Raymond Damon, and last season’s rookie disappointment Danys Olivares (Starting Pitcher), along with minor leaguers Herb Brooks and Ismael Azocar.

In, are Ernie Sanders, Dick O’Connor, Willie Timmons, and Ariel Chavez (all brought in via a blockbuster deal with Tacoma). Jamie Guerrero (ex Tacoma Closer) was signed off the free agent market along with ex Vancouver pitcher Jackie Ransom. Right Fielder Morgan James was brought in via a trade with Chicago.

What do all the changes mean? For starters, it means the pressure is on Florida to win in the next two to three seasons. With perhaps the worst farm system in the Dream League now (after several seasons of trading prospects for Major League players), Florida will need to roll with the team they have. Fortunately for them they have a solid core that is just entering their prime.

No discussion about Florida would be complete without mentioning three time reigning MVP Nick Black. Black is simply the best player in the Dream League today, and has been since the league inception. Hardware in his mansion includes:

Three League MVPs
Three Silver Sluggers (Two at Shortstop One at Third Base)
One Gold Glove (Third Base)
Two All Star Game Nods

Black can’t go anywhere with cameras and flashbulbs popping. When he visited the Miami strip this spring, with supermodel Ursula Mayes in tow, he was practically mobbed.

“When you hit the baseball this good, and look even better, you’re going to get the attention,” quipped Black.

Black spent most of the winter Stephen Sommer’s upcoming blockbuster “The Mummy 8”, but is now fully focused on the upcoming season.

Black’s main partner in crime, Corey Purcell, took a bit of a step backwards last season. Though he increased his home run total from 49 to 54, his average dropped from .312 to .266. Expect Purcell to revert back to his old form in Season 4.

The third player in the offensive mix is Right Fielder Al Leyritz. While he’s most famous for the New York Brawl in Season 2, he has also been a masher for Florida. Last season he always took a step back, going from a .291 average and 50 home runs to a .251 average and 38 home runs. He will need to improve on these totals for Florida to reclaim top spot from New York.

With Ernie Sanders and Dick O’Connor Florida feels they have shored up the weak spot in the team last season—the starting rotation.

Ernie Sanders posted a 12-6 record with a 1.21 WHIP and 3.58 ERA for the lowly Thunderbirds last season. Had his team been in contention he would have been looked at as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate. As it stands Sanders still garnered a Gold Glove, and at 27 is just entering his prime.

Dick O’Connor was floundering in Texas midway through Season 3, before Tacoma brought him in as a starter. He flourished going 9-6 in Tacoma (with 17 starts) posting a 1.24 WHIP and 3.14 ERA. At 26, he too is just entering his prime.

Both of these men will join super-prospect turned staff ace, Winston Taft. League experts predict this will be the season Taft really shines. Though he struggled in spring training you can expect 16 wins and a WHIP of 1.30 and an ERA of 3.70 out of Taft this year.

While Florida has retooled and improved, New York is a young team that got better simply by standing pat (mostly). It’s really a toss up between these two clubs, but ESPN predicts the senior leadership, and the Black/Purcell combo, will just inch Florida over New York for a division title that will go down to the last week of the season. ESPN’s other big prediction for the NL East: This will be the first season Nick Black doesn’t win the MVP award—the dimensions of the new Florida park will hurt his numbers.

New York Gridlock
General Manager: lefty32
Season 3 Record: 84 Wins – 78 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: First

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: 82 Wins - 80 Losses (Second)
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Samuel Service (Third Baseman)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Hank Scott (Second Baseman)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Nolan Lieber (AAA Catcher)

The New York versus Florida rivalry was kicked up a notch last year, as the streaking Gridlock posted a 7-3 record over their last 10 games to catch, and pass, Florida (2-8 over their last 10) for the NL East title. Of course everyone also remembers the famous brawls in Season 2 involving New York’s Gookie Cosby and Florida’s Al Leyritz which produced one of the best punch lines in all of Dream League that season,

“----ing Leytriz better check his batting helmut before he steps in this year,” warned Cosby.

Though the words were tough most of the rivalry was kept on the field. That’s just fine with New York management who has very quietly built a young, budding team. There is not one player in the entire organization over the age of 30.

Third Baseman Samuel Service blossomed in Season 3, making his first All Star Game appearance. He would finish out the season with a .297 average, 17 home runs, 103 RBI and 29 stolen bases—a well rounded stat line. His leadership, which is harder to measure but no less important, came in key down the stretch.

“Everybody knows Sammy is the guy that makes this club run,” says longtime New York Bench Coach Wilfredo Guerrero. “All the guys respect him in the locker room.”

Another man they all respect is staff ace Francisco Cruz. In Season 2 he had five complete games enroute to a 14-12 record, and last year 16-10 with some absolutely key wins down the stretch.

With such a young team it’s difficult to predict who else will step up. Second Baseman Hank Scott makes the big leap from AA ball, where he hit 103 home runs over the last two seasons, to the Big League. Scouts are mixed on whether he’s ready to contribute. Expect a low batting average but plenty of power as Scott makes the transition.

Joshua Dunham will be patrolling the outfield again in Season 4. Last year he posted a 20/30 season (21 home runs 31 stolen bases) and scored 110 runs. On paper he’s the prototypical lead off man, who has a very keen batting eye (86 walks last year) and solid speed and baserunning ability, but he also needs to improve his ability to make contact.

Johnny Neill will begin his second season as New York’s everyday catcher. In Season 3 he came through offensively with 25 home runs and a .282 average. He was also, unfortunately, nearly as bad as advertised behind the plate, allowing a ridiculous 199 stolen bases in 246 attempts (80% success rate). This was actually an improvement, however, over his career numbers (Neill had previously allowed an 89% success rate).

One man who won’t be around to help New York is “Hoover” (James Steele), the Shortstop who won two consecutive Gold Gloves during his tenure with New York. Upset at being forced to play both Second Base and Shortstop in Season 3, he bolted for the Texas Oilers in the offseason signing a multi year deal worth about $5 million per season. This came as a surprise and disappointment to the New York press and fans.

“Why on Earth you slide a Gold Glove shortstop over to second base is beyond me,” Mitch Gerrity of the New York Post wrote, “lefty32 ought to be strung up for letting Steele get away in the offseason by treating him like dirt.”

The NL East is a division full of intrigue at the top of the table. Expect the Division race to go down to the last week again. ESPN predicts the division will go down to the last week of the season and could even require tie-breakers to settle the matter.

Baltimore Barksdales
General Manager: metserock44
Season 3 Record: 80 Wins – 82 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: Third

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: 78 Wins - 84 Losses (Third)
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Toby McPherson (Left Fielder)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Vladimir Molina (Closer)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Ralph Griffin (HiA Starting Pitcher)

Simply put there is nobody better in the league than Toby McPherson. How he has been overlooked over the past three seasons in the Cy Young voting is beyond us. Sure, the Barksdales have not been in contention, but c’mon, McPherson is simply the most dominate starter in the league today. McPherson’s line last season:

14-5 Record
183 Innings Pitched
196 Strikeouts
1.03 WHIP
2.21 ERA

Beyond McPherson there has typically been a huge drop off for the rest of the team. Not this year. This is the year Closer Vladimir Molina (21 years of age) takes it to the next level. With a curveball that is nearly unhittable for lefties, and a four seam fastball that has great movement, Molina should be lights out if Baltimore can get him the save opportunities.

Underrated Enrique Johnson was the only Baltimore pitcher to reach 200 innings (212) and he did it with a respectable WHIP of 1.25 and ERA of 3.94. While nobody will ever mistake him for McPherson, Johnson gives Baltimore a chance to win every time he goes out to the mound.

“It’s just as much a mental battle as it is physical. I just try to keep my team in games,” says Johnson.

On offense First Baseman P.J. Rowan has been on the trading block since the stock market crash of ’29 (or so it seems), yet despite the constant sportstalk and blogs pronouncing him dead in Baltimore, he continues to produce (44 home runs and 113 RBI last year).

Eric Gabriel returns as Catcher after posting a .293 average and 32 home runs in Season 3. While he’s not the league’s best pitch caller, his offense makes up for it. Ideally Baltimore would like to move Rowan and slide Gabriel into First Base.

On the speed front, Tarrik Lawrence was judicious in his baserunning nabbing 31 stolen bases in 37 attempts. If he can improve on his .258 average and low walk total (37 all last season), he’s a threat to steal 40+. In order for the Barksdale’s to improve he’ll also need to improve his defense (29 errors at Shortstop in only 76 games).

Baltimore is a young team still developing (especially after last year’s large scale changes). As long as Baltimore has McPherson they will always win their share of games, however Baltimore needs to build a stronger staff around him to compete for a division title. They also need to improve defensively across the board (third worst defense in the Dream League last year).

Rochester Red Wings
General Manager: fighters
Season 3 Record: 73 Wins – 89 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: Fourth

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: (78 Wins - 84 Losses) Fourth
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Reid Epstein (Starting Pitcher)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Kevin Grace (Starting Pitcher)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Babe Casanova (AA Third Baseman)

“Three seasons, three last place finishes,” says Rochester sports columnist Harry Greene. “It’s getting tough to swallow.”

Get used to swallowing, Harry, because with few offseason acquisitions via trade or free agency, Rochester essentially fields the same squad as last season. There are, however, reasons for hope. With not one player older than 30 on their Major League Roster, Rochester is being patient and developing a stronger team via their farm system.

One product of that system is staff ace Reid Epstein. At 24, he already has an impressive resume, posting 39 wins in three seasons and 526 strikeouts in 665 innings. Look for him to improve on last year’s line of 12-10 with a 1.14 WHIP and 3.33 ERA.

Another product of Rochester’s patience is starter Kevin Grace. Grace didn’t exactly tear up AAA ball last season (10-13 record with an ERA of 1.39 and WHIP of 4.18) but he has all the tools to be successful at the Major League level. His stuff is first rate, and if he can get his control in order, he’ll be a top flight pitcher to go along with Epstein.

These two young guns will be joined on the staff by veteran Javy Silva. Silva has notched at least 200 innings the last two seasons, however he’s also lost 36 games over those same two seasons. With a dynamite fastball Silva ought to be better than his numbers suggest, however at least one Rochester insider says it has nothing to do with his physical tools.

“Javy is a bit of a headcase,” the source says. “He also likes his rum and women, and isn’t afraid to have quite a bit of both even the night before one of his starts.”

Offensively is where Rochester should be focusing their attention as they build this young squad. They have a ringer to build around in Third Baseman Carson Sherman. Sherman slugged 37 home runs last year and drove in 98.

“I just try to get better each and every season,” says Sherman. At only 25 years of age he has a lot of upside.

Rochester also has another building block in rookie Right Fielder Charles Guerrero. Though overlooked in Rookie of the Year balloting, Guerrero was amazing for Rochester last year. He batted .329 and hit 32 home runs as a rookie (drove in 100 runs as well).

“It’s a crime that he didn’t win the award, frankly,” said Hitting Coach Nate Smith. “The kid is 5’8” and bashes 32 home runs as a rookie—who does that?”

Who else General Manager fighters can bring in on offense will determine how quickly this ballclub climbs. Look for a large improvement from Rochester this year (5-10 game improvement). Look for them in the future to be a threat to New York and Florida as their pitching staff matures.