NL South Preview (Season 4)

NL South Preview

By ESPN Correspondent Peter Gammons

Charlotte Knights
General Manager: dspahlinger
Season 3 Record: 86 Wins – 76 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: First

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: 89 Wins - 73 Losses (First)
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Pepe Benitez (Starting Pitcher)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Wilfredo Ortiz (Starting Pitcher)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Raul Melo (LowA Shortstop)

With three division titles in three years Charlotte has history on their side. There’s no reason to predict a change in the way the NL South will go this year. General Manager dspahlinger enters his third season with most of his team intact from last year.

The Knights had the fifth best pitching staff in the league last year, posting a team ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.28. They were also second in the entire league in terms of strikeouts.

“We’ve got a complete staff,” says Knights Bullpen Coach Kyle Kramer.

Leading the staff is wonderkid, and 15 game winner, Pepe Benitez. Only 23 years of age, he already has logged 681 career innings, 50 career wins, and 633 strikeouts. The fact he hasn’t even come close to reaching his ceiling amazes his teammates and scares his opposition.

“He’s got more upside than anyone I’ve ever seen,” says Josh Clancy, Vancouver’s own ace.

Supporting Benitez in the pitching rotation will be Tony Mesa, Wilfredo Ortiz, Cam Stein and Boots Monroe.

Mesa is good enough to be an ace on most squads. With a Cy Young trophy to his credit and a career WHIP of 1.07 and ERA of 2.77, one could argue he, not Benitez, is the best member of the staff.

“They’re both damn good,” notes Kyle Kramer. “It’s the best one-two punch in the league.”

Wilfredo Ortiz figures to have a breakout season this year, as he improved his pitching command while dominating in winter league play.

Of course the question in Charlotte has never been the pitching staff, the question is how many runs can they squeeze out of a lineup devoid of power. Last year, Charlotte finished with the second least home runs in the league and the third worst OPS. Right Fielder Dustin Crosby was the only Knight to finish with over 20 home runs (23), and Shortstop Benji Martin was the only player to reach 100 RBI (101). With three straight postseason series losses, the Knights offense will have to improve in order to advance beyond winning the division.

Despite this glaring weakness, no offseason moves of note were made to shore up the offense. Team salary stayed essentially unchanged, and no pitching was packaged for a high caliber bat. The season of inactivity was enough to drive Charlotte fans nuts.

“It’s an embarrassment,” said Charlotte radio personality Craig Carter. “With free agency the way it is in this game today, you only have a short window to win with this pitching staff. Why we don’t acquire a bat is beyond me.”

Time will tell if Charlotte makes a move before the trading deadline to acquire a bat, but if history is any indication you shouldn’t count on it. For that reason alone, Charlotte is a safe pick to win the division and get bounced again during the first round of the playoffs.

Montgomery Hornets
General Manager: rootgargle
Season 3 Record: 65 Wins – 97 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: Fourth

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: 80 Wins - 82 Losses (Second)
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Ivan Delgado (Catcher)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Donald Miyakazi (Right Fielder)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Ham McCallum (AA Starting Pitcher)

One of the best kept secrets in the NL is the improvement of the Montgomery Hornets over the offseason. After finishing with 65 wins and 97 losses last season, which culminated with former General Manager pocketaces’ ouster from office, Montgomery is headed in the right direction.

“We’ve got some good young kids,” new General Manager rootgargle points out. “We’ll improve this year.”

Among those new kids is Right Field prospect Donald “Kamikaze” Miyakazi. Miyakazi has been on everyone’s radar since Season 2, when he won a Silver Slugger Award in LoA ball after hitting .349 with 26 home runs and 157 RBI. It was a season where he also tacked on 30 stolen bases. It was also during that same season that he got his nickname, after running over Tacoma catcher Kory Sutton at home plate (breaking his own nose and fracturing Sutton’s cheekbone). Last season Montgomery rushed Miyakazi’s development from LoA to AAA, and he struggled mightily during the first half of the season.

“Everything was so much faster,” Miyakazi told the Montgomery Herald, “I just wasn’t ready for it.

By the end of the season Miyakazi had adjusted to the rise in competition, and Montgomery brass now thinks he’s ready for the big show. Expect a 20/20 season from the “Kamikaze”, with a 25/25 season a distinct possibility.

Entering his fourth season with Montgomery, utility superman Woodie Drew is expected to continue his rapid development. After raising his batting average by over 30 points (.284), his slugging by over 75 points (.458), and increasing his stolen base total by 11 (12), Drew is poised for big things in Season 4. The question remains, however, where will Montgomery place him in the field? Drew logged 46 games at third base, 22 games at shortstop, and 67 games in left field last year.

Pitching is a bit of a question mark for the Hornets. No starter logged more than 180 innings. Leo Rogers was the only starter who had an ERA under 4.00, and he was claimed off waivers by the Chicago Machines after being designated for assignment.

Perhaps the best hope for the pitching staff comes in the form of Mississippian Babe Brooks. He’s pretty much a straight fastball pitcher, but he throws if for strikes and limits free passes to first (3:1 strikeout to walk ratio). That said, scouts universally agree Brooks is not a number type starter. Improvements will have to be made to the staff in order to catch perennial division leader Charlotte.

With a plethora of young stars ready to hit their stride, expect Montgomery to pull a surprise leapfrog over both Huntington and New Orleans this year to place second in the NL South.

Huntington Hackers
General Manager: jamesny27
Season 3 Record: 76 Wins – 86 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: Second

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: 72 Wins - 90 Losses (Third)
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Louie Franco (Left Fielder)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Albert Hamilton (Starting Pitcher)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Allen Wood (AAA Center Fielder)

Huntington took a huge step backwards last year losing 15 more games in Season 3 than they did in Season 2. Major culprit for the slide—an aging ballclub. Major contributors like relievers Alex Lorenzo and Clay Barry are over 35, and all three starting outfielders, Carlton Bush, Miguel Cortez, and Louie Franco (assuming Louie Franco slides to Left Field this year), are age 33.

“Age, it’s going around—everybody’s catching it,” Bush quipped this year during Spring Training.

Help may be on the way in the form of AAA Center Fielder Allen Wood. Huntington has been very patient with Wood, bringing him up one level a year. This approach culminated in a radical successful season at AAA last year where Wood stroked 60 home runs and batted .357. He also stole 27 bases is 35 attempts. There are some that suspect Allen Wood will actually be patrolling center field to start the season.

“He’s got as good an opportunity as anyone to make the squad,” says Hacker Bench Coach Terry Morris.

A veteran who hasn’t experienced a backslide with age is First Baseman Danny Vernon. Rumors are swirling as to whether Vernon will start the season with the Hackers. After leading the team with 61 home runs last year there’s a widely held belief Vernon will be dealt.

“I can’t worry about what’s out of my control,” says Vernon.

On the mound, Charles Fullmer will be counted on to make the transition from staff contributor to staff ace. With a tremendous fastball and a solid curveball, there’s no reason to think he can’t be successful. Expect at least a reprise of Season 3 where he went 16-6 with a WHIP of 1.36 and an ERA of 3.52.

Another man that needs to make a return to form is Closer Clay Barry. In Season 2 Barry was electric, saving 36 games in 39 chances while sporting a miniscule WHIP of 0.92 and ERA of 2.81. Despite somehow garnering an All Star game selection last year (one of the great unsolved mysteries of Season 3), his numbers ballooned to a WHIP of 1.33 and an ERA of 4.39. While Season 2 expectations are unreasonable, Barry will need to split the difference of the two seasons, otherwise the 9th inning could become an adventure in Huntington.

During the first three seasons Huntington posted solid second place finishes in the division. Unfortunately the core of the squad is aging and clubs like Montgomery and New Orleans are starting to catch up in terms of talent. Expect this to be a year of flux for Huntington, where they’ll look to either rebuild or make one last push for a division title.

New Orleans Sinners
General Manager: jmil397
Season 3 Record: 65 Wins – 97 Losses
Season 3 Division Finish: Fourth

ESPN’s Season 4 Predicted Finish: (67 Wins - 95 Losses) Fourth
ESPN’s Predicted Team MVP: Steve Bennett (First Baseman)
ESPN’s Breakout Contributor: Erv Richardson (Long Reliever)
Sporting News Top Minor Leaguer: Alex Lee (AAA Center Fielder)

From the moment New Orleans Governor Ray Nagin cut the red ribbon surrounding Zephyr Field there have been high hopes for a franchise that has struggled in recent seasons.

With the new stadium and renewed hope came a newly tinkered with pitching staff. General Manager jmil397 made a couple of offseason moves, one of which was acquiring Dan Fowler from last year’s Dream League Champions, Kansas City. Fowler posted good totals for Kansas City last year including a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 2.87. For an annual salary of $3.2 million dollars he was considered a smart pick up. Jmil397 also promoted Jo-jo Bell from AAA. Bell is expected to win a spot in the starting rotation during Spring Training. While he has some control problems he’s got a couple of good pitches, most notably his left breaking four seam fastball.

Returning as New Orleans’ ace is Wilson Blowers, the tall and lanky right hander. Though he looks like a stick figure on the mound (he’s 6”6’ and only 188 pounds), and can’t be confused for having a cannon for an arm (his fastball tops out at 84), he is effective. Last season he posted an extremely respectable 16-9 record for a team that only won 65 games. In addition he posted 191 strikeouts using primarily finesse and guile.

“He’s a student of the game,” says Sinner Pitching Coach Miguel Santos. “Nobody studies hitters more then he does.”

The offense will be centered around cleanup hitter Steve Bennett. Bennett posted a .292 average while swatting 37 home runs and driving in 115 runs from his First Base slot. His partner in crime, Right Fielder, Thurman Durham, left for Philadelphia after the Sinners declined his option for Season 4. His 26 home runs and 88 RBI will be hard to replace. Ironically General Manager Jmil397 looked to the franchise that signed Durham for a replacement. In an offseason move New Orleans picked up veteran Right Fielder Rickey Simon in a trade. Simon has hit 83 home runs and batted .324 over the last three seasons, but at 35 he’s not getting any younger.

Finally, no talk of the New Orleans Sinners would be complete without mentioning part time Center Fielder, part time Third Baseman, and part time GQ cover model, Luis Mantalban. Mantalban has been a top 25 type prospect for as long as anyone can remember. He’s a five tool player that can change a game with his glove, legs, or bat. The problem seems to be his concentration and dedication to the game. One has to wonder whether the “Big Easy” is the right place for Mantalban to mature beyond his playboy image. In the right environment and frame of mind, a 25/25 season and a Gold Glove is a given.

New Orleans is an interesting club with some cornerstone players in place. Unfortunately for Ray Nagin, and the rest of the Sinner supporters, the supporting cast is weak. It will be up to rookie General Manager jmil397 to build the pieces around the Mantalbans, Bennetts and Blowers. If this season is an indication, the building has begun.